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September 2, 2025 - GTU Office of Press and Public Relations
Prof. Mehmet Melikoğlu, Faculty Member, Department of Chemical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Gebze Technical University, has developed innovative per capita consumption-based regression models to forecast Türkiye’s total final energy use until 2030. Covering different sectors such as transportation, industry, services, and households, the study provides an important tool for decision-makers in short- and medium-term energy planning.
When compared with data from Türkiye’s 2022 National Energy Plan (NEP), the models demonstrated high accuracy, with error rates ranging between 2.8% and 5.6%. The projected energy demand for 2025 (5400–6070 PJ) largely aligns with the NEP target (5190 PJ). The 2030 projections (5530–6760 PJ), on the other hand, indicate possible deviations from official forecasts (5840 PJ), highlighting the strong influence of population dynamics on energy demand.
“This research reveals that population-based models can provide a reliable foundation for Türkiye’s energy planning,” said Prof. Melikoğlu, adding that the study points to both opportunities and challenges in meeting future energy needs.
The study also underlines the importance of integrating socioeconomic indicators, sectoral details, and technological/policy impacts into the models to further strengthen long-term forecasts. The findings contribute scientifically to Türkiye’s energy roadmap and support the development of evidence-based policies.
📄 Paper Details Title: A holistic methodology for predictive modeling of total final energy use in Türkiye till 2030 Journal: Renewable Energy Year of Publication: 2025 DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.124136
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